Crowded at the top
The fight for #1 seeds is getting interesting. The seed points (Pts column; see the S-Curve list for full list) show very little difference between the top six teams (through games of Feb 5).
| Rank | Conf | Non | Road | L10 | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-100 | 101+ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| School | W-L | Pts | Sagarin | Poll | RPI | RPI | +/- | RPI | +/- | W | W | +/- | +/- | L |
| UCLA | 19-2 | 15.99 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisc. | 22-2 | 15.95 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Pitt | 20-3 | 15.64 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Fla. | 21-2 | 15.63 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ohio St | 20-3 | 15.62 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| UNC | 20-3 | 15.56 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
The seed points is just that - a point value given based on the seed a team has (or is predicted to have), where the better the seed, the more points are given. A #1 seed is worth 16 points, a #2 seed is worth 15 points, and so on. (If we need to assign seed points to a team not selected for the field, they get a value of 0. That is why we chose a descending point value; 16 points (#1 seed) is better than 8 points (#9 seed), which is better than 0 points (watching on TV).)
We assign each team selected for the predicted field of 65 a seed point value by comparing their profiles to teams from previous years. The seed point value comes from combining (sort of like an average) value from the most similar teams. We then rank the teams by seed points to determine the overall S-Curve.
For example, UCLA has 15.99 seed points, meaning that they have a profile that essentially matches #1 seeds from previous years. (Remember 16 points is the maximum.) Six teams have at least 15.56 points, meaning they all have profiles that, as of today, are most like that of #1 seeds from the past.
The teams are bunched together, but they do have different profiles, which makes it difficult to differentiate.
| School | Pro | Con |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Non-conf schedule (RPI #1) 5 W vs. RPI Top 25 | Conf RPI #10 Road record (3-2) |
| Wisconsin | Road record (5-1) 4 W vs. RPI Top 25 | Non-conf RPI #11 |
| Pittsburgh | Road record (6-2) Non-conf schedule (RPI #5) | 2 W vs. RPI Top 25 |
| Florida | 10-0 Last 10 #1 in polls | Non-conf schedule (RPI #44) 2 W vs. RPI Top 25 |
| Ohio State | Conference record (8-1, RPI #1) | Non-conf schedule (RPI #24) 2 W vs. RPI Top 25 |
| North Carolina | Non-conf schedule (RPI #4) 5 W vs. RPI Top 25 | Bad losses (Gonzaga RPI #53, NC State RPI #103) Conference record (RPI #13, lowest of the 6 teams) |
Of course, only four teams will end up as #1 seeds, so the smallest thing can have a large impact. Before last weekend, North Carolina was at the top of the S-Curve with 15.97 seed points. After losing to NC State, they dropped to sixth with 15.56. In most years, 15.56 points would easily be a #1 seed. If the Heels beat Duke Wednesday, they may well jump back up to a #1; only .08 seed points separate teams 3 through 6.
And don't forget, if Texas A&M continues their strong performance, they could join the big boys at the top. This one could go down to Selection Sunday.