Through Wednesday's games, Kentucky is the last at-large team in. Last year, we missed Kentucky after their Jekyll and Hyde season, though I did note before the fact that the Wildcats would be a problem.

So what about this year? They again have an imbalance between their conference and non-conference RPI ranks, though not nearly as drastic:

I've written about Kentucky several times this year. I still can't decide how I feel about them.

Their 4-5 record against RPI top 50 teams is better than most of the other bubble teams, and their 6-7 record against top 100 teams is OK. The two things that may hurt them most are their single win over an RPI top 25 team (over West Virginia in Las Vegas) and their nine games against teams ranked lower than 200. (Tennessee, whom the Wildcats decisively beat twice, is today 26th in RPI, so that one top 25 win could quickly - and arbitrarily - become three.)

I think that as long as Kentucky takes either LSU (at home) or Florida (in Gainesville) and is not drastically upset in the SEC tournament, they should be in good shape. Otherwise they could sneak in if the bubble stays weak.

We're going to try a little experiment here.

I frequently have trouble posting on the blog because I try to do too much. So as we draw closer to Selection Sunday, I'm going to write smaller more frequent posts and lay off the essays.

I'll start by doing something I expect to repeat over the next three weeks and look at one team at a time. I'll shine some light on how the model is interpreting their profile, whether I think the model is right, and what the rest of the schedule has in store for that team.

We start this week with Wisconsin. Feel free to familiarize yourself with the Badgers' profile.

Several things jump out at me. First, Wisconsin is ranked in the top 30 in both RPI and Sagarin, and their RPI against conference (capturing imbalanced conference schedules) and non-conference opponents (capturing not only non-conference strength of schedule, but how they performed against that schedule) each rank in the top 40.

The nitty gritty data I use to train the model goes back to 2000, and of the 249 teams with an RPI rank of 40th or better and both conference and non-conference RPI ranks of 50th or better, only 6 (2.4%) did not make the field as at-large (or were automatic qualifiers and would not have been selected at-large based on their seeds).

As you may have noticed, all six are from non-BCS conferences, so as long as Wisconsin doesn't stray too far from their current ranks, they should be in.

The other is that the Badgers are 2-8 against RPI Top 50 teams. Two wins is pretty good (only about 10% of teams since 2000 ranked 50th or better with two or more RPI top 50 wins weren't at-large selections), but they also have eight losses (about 20% of teams since 2000 ranked 50th or better with two or more RPI top 50 wins and seven or more RPI top 50 losses weren't at-large selections). Combined with their 6-1 record against teams ranked 51-100, they still have some room for error in the closing weeks.

Powered by the new Crashing the Dance team sheets (and HBO's new documentary on the Duke-Carolina rivalry), we look this week at the movers and shakers around the bubble. With less than three weeks left until Selection Sunday, the bubble is, as it usually is, fluid. Let's take a look at some of the teams still sitting uncomfortably on one side or the other.

All numbers through games of Sunday, February 22.

Up

Oklahoma State (out last week; #11 seed this week)

The Cowboys sneak in with a couple of decent wins, mostly taking advantage of this year's weak bubble. Despite not having a signature win (their best was in Florida over RPI #26 Siena), they've built a good but not great profile by not losing any bad games and not playing too many bad teams. The have lost nine games, but the average RPI rank of those opponents is 24. Unfortunately, the average opponent rank in their victories is 147, a little high. They could really use a win over Texas or Oklahoma (both would really help) and no more regular season losses, and I'm not convinced they're quite in yet.

Maryland (way out last week; second team out this week)

Another guard torches the Tar Heel defense as Greivis Vasquez put up a triple-double to lead the Terps over Carolina in College Park. Maryland has come a long way in a seemingly short time to put themselves on the threshold of a bid. If they show up again Wednesday against Duke, they may put themselves solidly in. Pomeroy doesn't think they will, pegging the Terps to finish at 7-9 in the ACC, which probably won't be good enough.

Down

Tennessee (#8 seed last week; #10 this week)

LSU is the only team the CTD oracle has in the "Looking good" section of at-large selections this week, and even that may be generous given their questionable non-conference schedule. The Vols fall hard on the road twice this week and drop to the #10 seed line despite their #24 RPI rank. They have several chances to impress the committee over the next two weeks with road games at fellow bubble-dwellers Florida and South Carolina. Wins in both could have Rocky Top looking good.

Southern Cal (#10 seed last week; out this week)

A win over Washington State was not enough to keep the Men of Troy in the field this week. Perhaps Tim Floyd can ask President Obama to help with that too. Only 11 of the Trojans 26 games have come against RPI Top 100 opponents (though Washington State fluctuates in and out depending on the day), and a recent brutal road stretch has Floyd looking for more federal help. Their two toughest remaining opponents (Cal and Stanford) are away from home (where the best team they've beaten is RPI #102 Washington State), so they have some work to do.

Since we only have 22 days and counting (according to the official Crashing the Dance countdown clock) until Selection Sunday, I thought I'd go ahead and unleash the "team sheet" profile pages I hinted about Wednesday. They're not quite complete (please send any feedback my way) but I'd rather have something than nothing for you, my loyal reader(s).

The Crashing the Dance team profiles are loosely based on the description and sample of the NCAA selection committee team profile sheets described by SI.com's Seth Davis during the 2007 bracket season (and mentioned in 2005 by Luke Winn). They may well have changed some since then, but without examples to the contrary I'll assume it's still roughly the same.

You can get to the team sheets from the selection, seed, and distance lists. Enjoy!

Last year, the bracket battle among ACC teams (Triangle teams, really) was for the two Raleigh pod slots and the Charlotte regional. This year, four ACC teams are battling it out (with a few others) for two slots in the Greensboro pod.

After North Carolina lost their first two conference games, it looked like Wake Forest and Duke might have the best chance at Greensboro, with Clemson not far behind. Now, with the Heels having run off 10 straight wins after the 0-2 start, one of the slots could be locked up soon.

The other three teams currently sport 7-4 records, with Clemson and Duke each getting another shot at Wake down the stretch, and the Devils traveling to the Dean Dome on Psycho T's Senior Day. (And wouldn't they love some revenge for J.J. Redick's Senior Day.) If one of those three finishes alone in second place in the ACC, they could have the early lead on the other Greensboro slot. Otherwise it will come down to the ACC Tournament in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome.

Pomeroy has Duke and Clemson finishing 11-5, with Wake at 10-6. Clemson already has the tiebreaker over Duke, and Duke has to beat Wake Sunday to avoid going 0-for-tiebreaker. (There are other teams that could well finish tied with or ahead of these three, but none have a realistic shot at Greensboro.) My guess is that it won't be settled until Atlanta.

With the weak bubble developing this year, some teams will make it in that wouldn't in other years. One team that CTD currently has in that made me scratch my head a bit is Georgetown. Let's take a look. (All numbers through Tuesday's games.)

Pros

The Hoyas are ranked 32nd by Sagarin and 39th in RPI. Since 2000, only 4% of the eligible teams (Georgia ranked 15th in 2003 but declared themselves ineligible) ranked 35th or better by Sagarin were left out of the bracket. However, only 8 of 13 such teams with a winning percentage of 60% or worse were selected. Fortunately, the Hoyas' tough schedule eases up a bit at the end, so they have a chance to improve that a bit. Pomeroy (which ranks them 22nd) has the Hoyas finishing 17-12, but that will require them to steal one from the Marquette/Louisville/Villanova group.

The Hoyas have a strong non-conference resumé, ranked 8th in non-conference RPI and 14th in non-conference SOS. Part of that is only playing two games against RPI 201+ teams, but they do have a win over an underrated Memphis team.

Cons

The big problem for the Hoyas is their conference performance. Despite (actually because of) the strength of the Big East, their 4-8 conference record ranks them 83rd in conference RPI. And that's not good. If we only consider RPI top 105 teams (the lowest RPI to get in was #74 New Mexico in 1999), only 3% of teams with conference RPI ranks of 75th or worse were at-large selections (or would have been based on their seeds).

?

Some of the other parts of their profile are just plain confusing. They have three wins over RPI top 25 teams (only 11 teams have three or more), but are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 (OK) and 6-10 against the RPI top 100 (worse). The 6 top 100 wins are good, but taking 16 games to get those 6 wins is not. The +1 differential on RPI top 200 games (11-10) isn't going to help either.

As an added bonus, here's a sneak preview of a new feature I'm working on for the stretch run. This is a look at Georgetown's profile based on the team sheets used by the selection committee.

After Connecticut's Monday loss to Pitt, Oklahoma is next in line to take over the hot potato #1 spot in the polls. But do they want it? And will they fail like all the rest?

Despite the ink and bytes given to Blake Griffin and his offense, the Sooners should be slightly concerned about their defense. They rank 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency (through Sunday), and as Luke Winn points out, that will not be good enough to get it done in March.

After a week off, the Sooners face Texas in Austin (Pomeroy predicts a one point loss) and continue their tough run to close the regular season, including hosting Kansas traveling to underrated (though not by Pomeroy) Missouri.

Odds are that even if the Sooners make it through this weekend unscathed, they won't finish the season on top of the polls without better defense. Of course, the way the top spot has been passed around this year, does anybody want it?

This week's edition is limited to teams in the top ten of the all-time winningest Division I programs.

All numbers through games of Sunday, February 15.

Up

North Carolina (#1 seed last week; #1 this week)

After falling to as low as #6 on the S-Curve after losing to Boston College and Wake Forest, the Heels are back up to #2 after winning nine straight. This week, they survived a first half flurry of threes and a "ridiculously slippery floor" to beat formerly #1 seeded Duke, and Sunday survived a ridiculously hot Jack McClinton to top Miami.

Kentucky (out last week; #11 this week)

As predicted, Kentucky re-enters the field after 10 days out. Jodie Meeks continues to dazzle, dropping 45 in a 79-63 win at Arkansas. The Wildcats sit at 18-7 (7-3 SEC), which puts them in better shape than they were last year. With the parity (or whatever word you choose) in the SEC this year, the Cats may be as likely to finish 7-9 as 13-3.

Down

Duke (#1 seed last week; #2 this week)

Is it deja vu all over again for Duke? Only time will tell, but the Devils have fallen to the #2 line after peaking at #1 on the S-Curve only three weeks ago. With 4 of their last 6 on the road (and Wake Forest and Florida State in Cameron), they need to right the ship to avoid falling more.

UCLA (#3 seed last week; #5 this week)

Despite a highly efficient and underrated offense, the Bruins lost a pair on the road to the Copper State contingent of the Pac 10. In fact, 4 of the country's top 10 offenses (by adjusted offensive efficiency), including UCLA and the aforementioned Arizona pair, reside in the Pac 10.

This week's episode comes without a theme. The Crashing the Dance household has been sick for most of the last two weeks, so there hasn't been much extra time to devote to the blog. I'm reintroducing a few additional fields (wins vs. RPI top 25 and RPI rank for conference games only) to the model after today's run, so the seeds listed here may be different than you see Tuesday.

All numbers through games of Sunday, February 8.

Up

Florida State (#11 seed last week; #7 this week)

Is this the year the Seminoles finally break through the bubble? After a big comeback win at Clemson Sunday, they have risen to the #7 line. Little attention nationally has been paid to their top 10 defense, but the rest of their season may depend on their turnover prone, poor shooting, 146th ranked offense.

Ohio State (#7 seed last week; #6 this week)

Don't look now, but Thad Matta is building a program in Columbus. The Buckeyes are good but not particularly strong on either side of the ball (45th in offensive efficiency, 51st in defensive efficiency) Of course, the Buckeyes started 15-6 (6-2 in the Big 10) last year before finishing 4-7 with several bad losses to fall off the bubble. The lack of a bad loss so far this year helps their case, but they've got to finish strong unlike last year.

Down

Texas (#6 seed last week; #8 this week)

Texas is in free fall. After starting 11-2 and peaking as a #2 seed before losing to Arkansas (January 6), the Longhorns have lost five of their last nine including their last three. With three of their next five against teams on the wrong side of the bubble, they can regain some of their mojo.

Xavier (#2 seed last week; #3 this week), Butler (#3 seed last week; #4 this week), Davidson (#8 seed last week; #11 this week), St. Mary's (#11 seed last week; out this week)

All four "mid majors" lost last week and each dropped at least one seed line. St. Mary's, which is dealing with injured star Patty Mills, dropped out of the field. As I noted a few weeks ago, teams from the non-traditional power conferences have been the most confounding to our model the last few seasons.

Welcome to the inaugural 2009 edition of Best Week Ever, your look at which teams helped and hurt their bracket chances over the past week. Each week, we plan to look at which teams and conferences made some of the bigger moves over the week. Since this is the first Best Week of the year, we'll stretch the definition of "week" this, uh, week.

So without further ado, and paying homage to another recent noteworthy inaugural, here we go. (All results through games of Sunday, February 1.)

Yes we can

Louisville (#3 seed last week; #2 this week)

After losing to UNLV on New Year's Eve to end an 8-3 start , the Cardinals have ripped off nine straight to rise from #32 on the S-Curve on January 7 to #8 today. After tonight's UConn game, they have a relatively light schedule to end the year, so they could be a sleeper #1 seed. Of course, several other teams in the Big East could say the same. I'll go out on a limb and say that Madison Square Garden in early March will have a Final Four atmosphere.

Minnesota (#7 seed last week; #4 this week)

Think Kentucky wouldn't rather have Tubby right about now? After holding Illinois to 36 points over 56 possessions, the Gophers find themselves back in the bracket discussion. I think that #4 seed the model spits out right now is a little high, but they are squarely in the field for now.

No we can't

Georgetown (#6 seed last week; #8 this week)

The Hoyas are almost the Big East mirror image of Louisville. After handing UConn its only loss to date on December 29 to cap a solid 10-1 start , they have dropped seven of nine . Over that stretch they fell from #4 on the S-Curve (January 3) to #30 on Monday. They have three winnable games over their next four to try to right the ship before the Marquette-Louisville-Villanova trifecta in late February. The good news is that Ken Pomeroy's ratings have them finishing 9-9 in the conference, which should be enough.

Kentucky (#8 seed last week; out this week)

(See Minnesota above.) The 'Cats once again dug themselves an early hole this season, though it was not as deep as last year's 7-9 start. After peaking as a #8 last week, two bad losses dropped them out of the field. I think that is too harsh (they are currently the first team out), and I expect we'll see Kentucky back in the CTD field before long.