March 26, 2009 12:12 AM
You can find plenty of previews of all the Sweet 16 games all across the Interwebs, so I thought I'd just lend some selected insight where I can.
(2) Duke vs. (3) Villanova - East Regional, Boston
Contrary to their reputation, Duke has become much more offense-centered since the insertion of Elliot Williams into the starting lineup February 19 at St. John's. Conventional wisdom says Williams has had more impact on defense, but that's not the case at all.
In starting 21-5, the Devils averaged 12.9 offensive NEM and -16.5 defensive NEM. (NEM refresher here; larger offensive NEM is better, smaller defensive NEM is better.) After the change their offensive NEM has improved to 22.5, but their defensive NEM has dropped significantly to -3.0. In other words, the Devils' defense has been performing somewhere between that of Iowa and Northeastern.
Other than a four game stretch from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7, their offense has actually been very good: 15.2 NEM before, 1.3 NEM during the slump, and 21.1 NEM after. Don't necessarily blame Williams for the drop in defense; the Devils' drop in defense actually goes back a few games before the Williams change. Before the Feb. 4 Clemson game, Duke played defense at a phenomenal -19.5 NEM; since then it's dropped dramatically to -2.4 NEM. Keep in mind this has nothing to do with conference play; the net efficiency margin factors out strength of opponent.
