After lagging below Syracuse for most of the season, Butler has recently risen to their level at the 30 NEM line. What's interesting is how they've done it.

Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)

The Bulldog D has been steadily improving for most of the season. Since Brad Stevens became head coach, Butler's strength has transformed from offense to defense. In 2006-07 (Todd Lickliter's last season as head coach), Butler ranked 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjOE) and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE). This season, they rank 50th in AdjOE and 10th in AdjDE.

Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)

The Orange 2-3 zone had been their moneymaker for most of the season, but there is a noticeable worsening trend starting with their February 14 home loss to Louisville (game 26). Fortunately for the Orange, their offense has picked up the slack to keep them around the 30 NEM level.

Butler statistically has been Syracuse's equal in recent games. However, the smart money says, all other things being equal, to go with the team that has been more consistent.