Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)
I've already shown the neutral effect of Kendall Marshall on UNC's defense compared the positive impact on their offense. The Heels have dropped off a little defensively since then, but are still very solid. There has still been inconsistent offensively, typical of a young team.
Kentucky's chart shows a roller coaster effect, with their offense dropping when their defense peaks and vice versa. Recently they're playing well on both ends of the floor.
The Heels and Wildcats have already played this season, but that game was nearly four months ago. For two teams that are among the least experienced in the country, using that game to assess today's matchup is not terribly useful. Not to mention the fact that Kendall Marshall, who has averaged more than 30 minutes per game since taking over the starting job, played only ten minutes in that game.