Each year I like to take a look at some of the teams that the selection and seeding models may be mishandling. I'll do a little more of that over the next week, but I'll start with a quickie side-by-side comparison of St. Mary's and Gonzaga.

(Background here)

The CTD selection model currently has St. Mary's as one of the last few that would be in if they we'rent already the automatic qualifier. Gonzaga, on the other hand, is the seventh team out.

It's not as though St. Mary's, like many of the teams at the tail end of the field, has a profile that historically matches at-large selections. The CTD model compares each team against profiles from the past and assigns each a score between 0 (not an at-large profile) and 100 (perfect at-large match). St Mary's score (through March 2 games) was 2.4 - not exactly a ringing endorsement.

St. Mary's best win is better than Gonzaga's, but after that Gonzaga has the better wins. St. Mary's inexplicable loss to San Diego will probably be its biggest problem with the committee.


St. Mary's (21 wins)Gonzaga (21 wins)
7671St. John's (15)H1523HXavier (23)6454
7371Gonzaga (71)A4337ASt. Mary's (51)8985
8274Long Beach St. (96)N6143HOklahoma St. (54)7352
8369Portland (102)H7146NMarquette (56)6663
9472Mississippi St. (110)N7952NBaylor (78)6864
8668San Francisco (127)A8761APortland (102)6764
7157San Francisco (127)H9367HPortland (102)7461
7353New Mexico St. (139)A9873HIUPUI (117)8656
8868Texas Tech (160)N10579HSan Francisco (127)7053
6559Santa Clara (168)A11288HSanta Clara (168)8576
8459Santa Clara (168)H117102HLafayette (241)8355
7747Denver (233)H126113APepperdine (242)6344
8560Pepperdine (242)A135123HPepperdine (242)9275
7971Pepperdine (242)H143133AWake Forest (256)7363
8752Mississippi Valley St. (243)H150142HEastern Washington (275)8657
8763Hartford (277)H158151ALoyola Marymount (288)6757
7556UC Riverside (284)H165159HLoyola Marymount (288)7959
9875Loyola Marymount (288)A172168HCal St. Bakersfield (306)9649
7970Loyola Marymount (288)H178175ASan Diego (315)6831
6756San Diego (315)H185182HSan Diego (315)8653
12152Chicago St. (329)H192190HSouthern (339)11772


St. Mary's (7 losses)Gonzaga (9 losses)
6674San Diego (315)A315168ASanta Clara (168)7185
7085Portland (102)A209148ASan Francisco (127)9196
8589Gonzaga (71)H163122AWashington St. (72)5981
7089Vanderbilt (25)A128105HSt. Mary's (51)7173
6575Utah St. (19)H10691NIllinois (39)6173
5569San Diego St. (5)A9082HMemphis (35)5862
7374Brigham Young (3)N7773NKansas St. (22)6481
  ANotre Dame (10)7983
  HSan Diego St. (5)7679