This game could be the ultimate test of the value of a good team on a hot streak against a consistently strong team.

Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)

VCU has been playing out of their minds offensively in March, and the defense hasn't been too shabby either.

Kansas is now the overwhelming favorite to win the national championship, with Nate Silver's 538 bracket showing their title chances close to 50% going into today. The Jayhawks have played increasingly better in the tournament according to NEM (28.5 vs. Boston University, 42.9 vs. Illinois and 48.3 vs. Richmond).

The last CAA team in the Elite 8 (George Mason in 2006) played that game against UConn a short drive from campus. A VCU win today would be the most surprising upset of this year's tournament, especially with the decided crowd advantage for Kansas, and would be a bigger upset than the last CAA team to make the Final Four.