Who's overvalued?

As I've noted before, no computer model is perfect, especially one that attempts to predict the behavior of unpredictable people. Some of its whiffs come out of the blue, but some are obvious if you look hard enough. Here are a few teams that I think the selection model is currently overvaluing.

UAB

I don't know where they'll show up tomorrow, but as of today the model had them comfortably in. Oddly enough, the loss to ECU bumped the Pirates into the top 100, which (marginally, albeit) increases the value of UAB's regular season sweep.

One problem is that they technically have a top-50 win, but it was against the #50 team (VCU) and it was at home. They are 9-7 against top 100, which is better than many of the bubble teams, but only 1-4 against top 50, and that one is just barely top 50.

Penn State and Michigan State

Each has a bad overall record, which the committee will certainly notice. For each, a run in the Big Ten tourney could mitigate that factor. Penn State is slightly more overvalued than the Spartans. They have a similar profile on the surface to Michigan and Michigan State, but it is qualitatively worse. Their best road win was at #75 Minnesota and the overall quality of their wins (and losses) don't stack up. (Comparison table described here.)

Results through games of March 9.

Wins

Penn St. (16 wins)					Michigan St. (16 wins)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
56	52	Wisconsin (13)	H	13	13	H	Wisconsin (13)	64	61
57	55	Illinois (40)	H	27	27	H	Illinois (40)	61	57
66	62	Michigan St. (47)	H	33	33	N	Washington (45)	76	71
66	63	Minnesota (75)	A	44	38	A	Oakland (52)	77	76
66	63	Minnesota (75)	H	50	41	H	Penn St. (56)	75	57
66	52	Northwestern (91)	A	57	47	A	Minnesota (75)	53	48
65	41	Northwestern (91)	H	62	51	H	Minnesota (75)	71	62
77	73	Duquesne (93)	H	66	56	A	Northwestern (91)	65	62
64	49	Fairfield (100)	H	69	60	H	Northwestern (91)	71	67
70	49	Furman (116)	H	74	67	H	South Carolina (128)	82	73
77	61	Central Connecticut (148)	H	81	76	H	Iowa (172)	85	66
65	51	Iowa (172)	H	88	85	H	Indiana (182)	84	83
66	57	Saint Joseph's (176)	H	95	93	H	Tennessee Tech (191)	73	55
69	60	Indiana (182)	A	101	104	H	Bowling Green (248)	74	39
70	56	Lehigh (204)	H	108	119	H	Eastern Michigan (324)	96	66
57	53	Mount St. Mary's (232)	H	116	132	H	Prairie View A&M (334)	90	51

Losses

Penn St. (13 losses)					Michigan St. (13 losses)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
64	74	Maine (215)	H	215	172	A	Iowa (172)	52	72
39	62	Maryland (102)	H	159	115	H	Michigan (57)	57	61
71	84	Mississippi (80)	A	132	95	A	Michigan (57)	63	70
69	79	Virginia Tech (64)	A	115	86	A	Penn St. (56)	62	66
62	65	Michigan (57)	H	104	76	A	Illinois (40)	62	71
69	76	Michigan (57)	A	96	68	N	Connecticut (24)	67	70
57	75	Michigan St. (47)	A	89	60	N	Syracuse (17)	58	72
51	68	Illinois (40)	A	83	55	H	Texas (14)	55	67
66	76	Wisconsin (13)	A	75	50	A	Wisconsin (13)	56	82
68	83	Purdue (8)	H	68	46	H	Purdue (8)	47	67
62	63	Purdue (8)	A	63	42	A	Purdue (8)	76	86
61	82	Ohio St. (2)	H	58	39	A	Duke (5)	79	84
66	69	Ohio St. (2)	A	53	36	A	Ohio St. (2)	61	71

Wins

Penn St. (16 wins)					Michigan (18 wins)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
56	52	Wisconsin (13)	H	13	34	H	Harvard (34)	65	62
57	55	Illinois (40)	H	27	41	A	Michigan St. (47)	61	57
66	62	Michigan St. (47)	H	33	43	H	Michigan St. (47)	70	63
66	63	Minnesota (75)	A	44	45	H	Oakland (52)	69	51
66	63	Minnesota (75)	H	50	47	A	Penn St. (56)	65	62
66	52	Northwestern (91)	A	57	49	H	Penn St. (56)	76	69
65	41	Northwestern (91)	H	62	50	A	Clemson (60)	69	61
77	73	Duquesne (93)	H	66	53	A	Minnesota (75)	70	63
64	49	Fairfield (100)	H	69	58	H	Northwestern (91)	75	66
70	49	Furman (116)	H	74	64	H	Utah (119)	75	64
77	61	Central Connecticut (148)	H	81	74	A	Iowa (172)	75	72
65	51	Iowa (172)	H	88	82	H	Iowa (172)	87	73
66	57	Saint Joseph's (176)	H	95	89	H	Indiana (182)	73	69
69	60	Indiana (182)	A	101	101	H	Bowling Green (248)	69	50
70	56	Lehigh (204)	H	108	111	H	Bryant (255)	87	71
57	53	Mount St. Mary's (232)	H	116	120	H	North Carolina Central (258)	64	44
						H	Gardner Webb (260)	80	58
						H	South Carolina Upstate (313)	66	35

Losses

Penn St. (13 losses)					Michigan (12 losses)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
64	74	Maine (215)	H	215	182	A	Indiana (182)	61	80
39	62	Maryland (102)	H	159	137	A	Northwestern (91)	60	74
71	84	Mississippi (80)	A	132	116	H	Minnesota (75)	64	69
69	79	Virginia Tech (64)	A	115	103	N	Texas El Paso (63)	56	65
62	65	Michigan (57)	H	104	90	A	Illinois (40)	52	54
69	76	Michigan (57)	A	96	78	N	Syracuse (17)	50	53
57	75	Michigan St. (47)	A	89	69	H	Wisconsin (13)	52	53
51	68	Illinois (40)	A	83	62	A	Wisconsin (13)	50	66
66	76	Wisconsin (13)	A	75	56	H	Purdue (8)	57	80
68	83	Purdue (8)	H	68	50	H	Ohio St. (2)	64	68
62	63	Purdue (8)	A	63	46	A	Ohio St. (2)	53	62
61	82	Ohio St. (2)	H	58	42	H	Kansas (1)	60	67
66	69	Ohio St. (2)	A

Clemson

The Tigers have four losses outside the RPI top 100. Their best road win is at #71 College of Charleston. Their 8-6 record against the top 100 is good, but somewhat deceptive. Five of those wins were over teams ranked between 71 and 100.

Harvard

Harvard's non-conference RPI (30th) is very good, but misleading. They played four non-conference road games against the top 57, which boosts their RPI, but they only won one. Their selection score is 7.8 (out of 100), meaning if they lose to Princeton, they'll probably fall out anyway, so I'm not too worried about them.