Apologize for the tardiness of this post. The Crashing the Dance household has been fighting off that pesky spring cold.

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Butler

Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)

After posting a pedestrian 7.9 NEM over their first 32 games, the Rams have blown it up since their March 6 CAA tournament win over George Mason. Their NCAA run has been no fluke; VCU's profile (35.5 overall NEM, 22.0 offensive and -13.5 defensive) has been similar to that of a top five profile. The big question is whether this is their new normal.

Butler has a -15.0 defensive NEM in their postseason games, but that may be a little misleading. The Bulldogs averaged a -35.5 defensive NEM in two of those games (March 8 vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and March 24 vs. Wisconsin), but only -5.7 in the others. Too bad for Butler that no other teams from l'état fromage are in the Final Four.

Connecticut vs. Kentucky

Immovable force, meet irresistible object.

Net Efficiency Margin offense (blue)/defense (red) splits (all charts here are 5-game running average NEM)

Kentucky's defense is starting to live up to the Calipari reputation. The Wildcats have posted a defensive NEM of -13.5 during their current ten game winning streak.

The Huskies are the only one of the Final Four teams that hasn't shown a late-season defensive surge. With Kemba Walker's Big East and NCAA tournament performance, they haven't needed it so far. A 23.2 offensive NEM over those nine games will do that for you.