1 day to Selection Sunday. The cut line is getting a little more defined, but there will be several teams in the field that don't have at-large worthy profiles by historical standards. (See the BubbleGrid refresher if you have questions.)
To help you identify where that line is, I've added a score column to the grid. The selection score is a number from 0 to 100 describing how likely that team's profile would be an at-large selection based on at-large profiles over the past 12 years. The CTD selection model looks at all at-large teams (and conference champs that I've estimated would have been at-large selection based on their seed) during that period and calculates the score for each team. The list of CTD at-large teams is the 37 with the highest selection score among those who are not (or not forecast to be) conference champs.
This score is not a likelihood or forecast of whether each team will in fact make the field on Sunday. It is only a estimate of whether that team's profile is at-large worthy, based on what the committee has done in the past using the profile attributes they've publicly said are important.
A few other random comments:
- We've had Iona in the at-large pool for quite a while, but they've slid all the way down to the final team in the field. Precarious spot with a number of AQ spots still in play.
- Marshall has jumped into the field, but don't get too excited. If they lose to Memphis, I expect they'll drop right back out.
- The teams with selection scores less than 0.1 can move up or down quickly with only small changes in their profile, so don't get too up or down if your team is one of those. The gaps between the teams near the cut line are small (as they always are), so small changes are amplified.
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference. Bold shaded teams have clinched the AQ berth
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
|1-25||1-50||1-100||1-200||Road||Good road wins||Bad home losses|
|Harvard *||> 99.9||25-4||1||1||0||5||2||13||12-3||#97 Pennsylvania|
|Iowa St.||> 99.9||22-10||2||5||-2||6||-2||5||4-7||#46 Kansas St.|
|Connecticut||> 99.9||20-13||1||3||-5||9||-2||5||3-7||#38 Notre Dame|
#53 South Florida
|Purdue||> 99.9||21-12||2||3||-7||9||-1||2||5-5||#10 Michigan|
|Virginia||> 99.9||22-9||1||2||-4||7||1||6||7-4||#48 North Carolina St.|
#81 Louisiana St.
|#116 Virginia Tech|
|West Virginia||98.3||19-13||1||5||-3||9||-2||4||4-6||#53 South Florida|
|#107 Kent St.|
|Virginia Commonwealth *||92||28-6||0||0||-1||6||2||11||10-3||#51 Akron||#140 Georgia St.|
|Brigham Young||33.3||23-8||1||1||-5||5||-1||5||9-3||#118 Loyola Marymount|
|Seton Hall||1.4||20-12||1||3||-4||7||-2||4||4-7||#80 Dayton||#162 Rutgers|
|Marshall||< 0.1||20-12||2||4||0||6||-3||-1||5-7||#40 Cincinnati||#109 UAB|
|North Carolina St.||< 0.1||22-11||0||1||-6||6||-3||3||5-4||#58 Miami FL||#195 Georgia Tech|
|Iona||< 0.1||25-7||0||0||-2||5||2||8||11-4||#94 Denver||#151 Manhattan|
|Miami FL||< 0.1||19-12||2||2||-6||3||-8||1||5-8||#4 Duke|
|South Florida||< 0.1||19-13||1||2||-7||6||-4||2||5-8||#17 Louisville|
|Drexel||< 0.1||27-6||0||1||0||4||1||6||11-4||#85 Cleveland St.|
|Belmont *||< 0.1||26-7||0||1||-2||2||-2||8||10-6||#56 Middle Tennessee||#224 Lipscomb|
|Middle Tennessee||< 0.1||24-6||0||0||-1||3||0||9||10-4|
|Long Beach St. *||< 0.1||22-8||0||1||-5||2||-5||0||8-7||#96 Pittsburgh|
|Saint Joseph's||< 0.1||20-13||2||2||-3||6||-4||3||5-8||#126 Richmond|
|Ohio||< 0.1||25-7||0||1||0||6||3||6||8-6||#42 Marshall|
#76 Northern Iowa
|Mississippi||< 0.1||20-12||0||1||-5||6||-5||5||4-8||#100 Georgia|
|Arizona *||< 0.1||23-10||0||1||-2||5||-3||6||8-5||#36 California|
#65 New Mexico St.
|Oral Roberts||< 0.1||27-6||0||2||0||3||0||6||10-4||#44 Xavier|
|South Dakota St. *||< 0.1||25-7||0||1||0||3||0||5||8-7||#69 Washington|
|Dayton||< 0.1||20-12||1||4||0||8||0||6||3-7||#16 Temple||#106 Duquesne|
#258 Rhode Island
|Northwestern||< 0.1||18-13||1||1||-9||5||-8||1||4-7||#93 Illinois|
|Mississippi St.||< 0.1||21-11||0||2||-2||7||-2||4||3-6||#30 Vanderbilt|
|Oregon||< 0.1||22-9||0||0||-4||5||-3||3||7-4||#72 Arizona|
|#131 Oregon St.|
|Central Florida||< 0.1||20-10||1||3||-4||3||-4||1||3-8|
|Akron *||< 0.1||21-10||0||1||-1||3||-6||0||8-7||#42 Marshall|
#74 Mississippi St.