# Second chance

Last year, I put together the probabilites of several interesting results prior to the Sweet 16 based on Nate Silver's intial attempt at forecasting March Madness for the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog. Mr. Silver used a combination of computer power rankings and seeds, with adjustments for geography, injury, and other factors, to generate probabilities for each team reaching a particular round in the bracket.

I didn't have time to do this before Thursday night's games, but there are still some interesting outcomes to consider.

These all assume the outcome of each region is independent. I think my math is right, but feel free to correct me if you notice anything wrong.

**44.9%** probability of a #1 seed winning the championship

18 champs have been #1 seeds - most since seeding began in 1979

**11.0%** probability of three #1 seeds in the Final Four

Three or more #1 seeds have made it four times since seeding began

**12.2%** probability of no #1 seeds in the Final Four

A #1-free Final Four has happened three times since seeding began, including last season

**16.5%** probability of a Kentucky vs. Ohio State final

The most likely championship game pairing

**31.5%** probability of #2 seed winning the championship

Six champs have been #2 seeds - second most since seeding began

**4.3%** probability of #3 seed (Baylor) winning the championship

Last year's champion (UConn) was a #3 seed.

**0.8%** probability of #10 seed or lower winning

Villanova (#8 seed) in 1985 is the lowest seed to win the championship

**34.8%** probability of all-SEC Final Four matchup (Kentucky vs. Florida)

There has never been an all-SEC Final Four game, despite ten championships between three teams

**8.8%** probability of both remaining Big 12 teams making the Final Four

More likely, there is an 44.7% chance neither will

**2.3%** probability of all-Big East final (Louisville vs. Syracuse)

Would be the first since Villanova defeated Georgetown in 1985.

**0%** probability of a rematch of last year's UConn/Butler championship game

A championship game rematch has not happened since 1961 and 1962 (Cincinnati defeated Ohio State both years)

**8.9%** probability of a rematch of the 2007 Florida/Ohio State championship game

**15.8%** probability of a rematch (in the semifinals) of the 2003 Syracuse/Kansas championship game (in New Orleans)

**6.3%** probability of a rematch of the 1996 Kentucky/Syracuse championship game

**0.7%** probability of a rematch of the 1987 Indiana/Syracuse championship game (in New Orleans)

**1.2%** probability of a rematch of the 1981 Indiana/North Carolina championship game