# What are the odds?

Most of these seem pointless given the predestined champion, but it’s always a fun exercise. So, using the FiveThirtyEight predictions let’s have a little fun with the numbers.

**67.7%** probability of a #1 seed winning the championship

20 champs have been #1 seeds - most since seeding began in 1979

**26.4%** probability of a #1 seed not named Kentucky winning the championship

**20.3%** probability of a #2 seed winning the championship

Six champs have been #2 seeds - second most since seeding began

**4.8%** probability of a #3 seed winning the championship

Five champs have been #3 seeds

**2.1%** probability of a #4 seed winning the championship

The only #4 seed to win a title was Arizona in 1997.

**5.1%** probability of a #5 or lower seed winning the championship

Only four previous champions (#6 N.C. State 1983, #6 Kansas 1988, #7 Connecticut 2014, #8 Villanova 1985) were seeded 5th or lower.

**6.5%** probability of no #1 seeds in the Final Four

A #1-free Final Four has happened three times since seeding began (last in 2011)

**15.4%** probability of an Kentucky vs. Villanova championship game

The most likely championship game pairing

**44.2%** probability of a rematch of last year’s Arizona/Wisconsin West Regional
final

This is the most likely regional final matchup this season

**23.7%** probability of an Elite Eight rematch of the 2012 Kentucky/Kansas
championship game

**33.7%** probability of a Final Four rematch of the 1997 Arizona/Kentucky
championship game

**38.3%** probability of no ACC teams in the Final Four

**0.07%** probability of four ACC teams in the Final Four

The ACC has five teams with #4 seeds or better, the most of any conference