Most of these seem pointless given the predestined champion, but it’s always a fun exercise. So, using the FiveThirtyEight predictions let’s have a little fun with the numbers.
67.7% probability of a #1 seed winning the championship
20 champs have been #1 seeds - most since seeding began in 1979
26.4% probability of a #1 seed not named Kentucky winning the championship
20.3% probability of a #2 seed winning the championship
Six champs have been #2 seeds - second most since seeding began
4.8% probability of a #3 seed winning the championship
Five champs have been #3 seeds
2.1% probability of a #4 seed winning the championship
The only #4 seed to win a title was Arizona in 1997.
5.1% probability of a #5 or lower seed winning the championship
Only four previous champions (#6 N.C. State 1983, #6 Kansas 1988, #7 Connecticut 2014, #8 Villanova 1985) were seeded 5th or lower.
6.5% probability of no #1 seeds in the Final Four
A #1-free Final Four has happened three times since seeding began (last in 2011)
15.4% probability of an Kentucky vs. Villanova championship game
The most likely championship game pairing
44.2% probability of a rematch of last year’s Arizona/Wisconsin West Regional final
This is the most likely regional final matchup this season
23.7% probability of an Elite Eight rematch of the 2012 Kentucky/Kansas championship game
33.7% probability of a Final Four rematch of the 1997 Arizona/Kentucky championship game
38.3% probability of no ACC teams in the Final Four
0.07% probability of four ACC teams in the Final Four
The ACC has five teams with #4 seeds or better, the most of any conference