T-2 days and counting
It was certainly a rough day for many of the bubble teams trying to make a case for selection. So many in fact, that I had to use a table rather than a paragraph for each. Here's a look at the CTD selection confidence before and after Thursday's games for these teams.
| Team | Result | Opponent | Opp.RPI | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 91-84 | Colorado | 166 | 100% (21st of 34 at large) | 99.4% (26th) |
| Ole Miss | 97-95 (OT) | Georgia | 148 | 100% (24th of 34) | <0.1% (way out) |
| Arizona | 75-64 | Stanford | 17 | 99.9% (29th of 34) | 99.3% (27th) |
| Dayton | 74-65 | Xavier | 9 | 98.7% (29th of 34) | 96.2% (30th) |
| Villanova | 82-63 | Georgetown | 7 | 92.6% (31st of 34) | 77.2% (31st) |
| Oregon | 75-70 | Washington State | 21 | 88.4% (32nd of 34) | 45.8% (last in) |
| UMass | 69-65 | Charlotte | 78 | 55.3% (last in) | 8.0% (3rd out) |
| New Mexico | 82-80 | Utah | 105 | 35.1% (2nd team out) | 64.3% (33rd) |
| Arizona State | 59-55 | USC | 33 | 7.4% (6th team out) | 0.1% (8th out) |
| Florida | 80-69 | Alabama | 119 | 0.1% (8th team out) | 0.1% (way out) |
| UAB | 78-68 (OT) | Tulsa | 122 | <0.1% (way out) | <0.1% (way out) |
| Maryland | 71-68 | Boston College | 140 | <0.1% (way out) | done |
With so many teams losing, there no surprise several teams saw decreases in selection confidence but moved up on the board because other bubble teams fared worse. Some even saw an increase in selection confidence. Ironically, New Mexico's loss to Utah moved the Utes into the RPI Top 100, giving New Mexico two more Top 100 wins from their earlier victories over Utah. (UTEP's win over Houston also moved the Miners into the Top 100, giving the Lobos another boost. Is this realistic? Maybe not as extreme as this, but this shows why it is important to consider the entire profile and not just start from yesterday's bracket and shift teams around. It's just as likely that Utah and UTEP move back out of the Top 100 and negate this gain.
This might be another area where the committee considers factors we can't model. All of the bubble teams have one last chance to prove they belong. When teams like Baylor, Ole Miss, New Mexico, Florida, UAB, and Maryland lose to sub-100 RPI teams, that can leave a big last impression on the minds of the committee members. Fair or not, people have a natural tendency to weight recent events more, and some of that might come through here.
On the other hand, opening round bye teams in the Big East took a hit Thursday, with three of the top four seeds losing. How did Thursday affect their CTD S-Curve outlook?
| Team | Result | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 76-69 (OT) to Pitt | 11th | 12th |
| UConn | 78-72 to West Virginia | 16th | 17th |
| Notre Dame | 89-79 to Marquette | 17th | 19th |
By the end of Friday, every team will have played at least one conference tourney game, and things start to get serious. I can't wait.