Georgetown on My Mind
With the weak bubble developing this year, some teams will make it in that wouldn't in other years. One team that CTD currently has in that made me scratch my head a bit is Georgetown. Let's take a look. (All numbers through Tuesday's games.)
The Hoyas are ranked 32nd by Sagarin and 39th in RPI. Since 2000, only 4% of the eligible teams (Georgia ranked 15th in 2003 but declared themselves ineligible) ranked 35th or better by Sagarin were left out of the bracket. However, only 8 of 13 such teams with a winning percentage of 60% or worse were selected. Fortunately, the Hoyas' tough schedule eases up a bit at the end, so they have a chance to improve that a bit. Pomeroy (which ranks them 22nd) has the Hoyas finishing 17-12, but that will require them to steal one from the Marquette/Louisville/Villanova group.
The Hoyas have a strong non-conference resumé, ranked 8th in non-conference RPI and 14th in non-conference SOS. Part of that is only playing two games against RPI 201+ teams, but they do have a win over an underrated Memphis team.
The big problem for the Hoyas is their conference performance. Despite (actually because of) the strength of the Big East, their 4-8 conference record ranks them 83rd in conference RPI. And that's not good. If we only consider RPI top 105 teams (the lowest RPI to get in was #74 New Mexico in 1999), only 3% of teams with conference RPI ranks of 75th or worse were at-large selections (or would have been based on their seeds).
Some of the other parts of their profile are just plain confusing. They have three wins over RPI top 25 teams (only 11 teams have three or more), but are 3-6 against the RPI top 50 (OK) and 6-10 against the RPI top 100 (worse). The 6 top 100 wins are good, but taking 16 games to get those 6 wins is not. The +1 differential on RPI top 200 games (11-10) isn't going to help either.
As an added bonus, here's a sneak preview of a new feature I'm working on for the stretch run. This is a look at Georgetown's profile based on the team sheets used by the selection committee.