BubbleGrid for Friday, March 13
See here for a description of the BubbleGrid.
Friday the 13th came early for many of the top seed contenders and some of the teams on the bubble.
- Michigan and Minnesota should feel solid after wins Thursday, while Penn State lives to fight another day. A win Friday night over Purdue should help the Nittany Lions.
- A few Mountain West teams (UNLV and New Mexico) in the RPI mid-60s are now in jeopardy after losing.
- The model is more confident in Southern Cal and Arizona than I am. Many of the teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble have two or more bad losses (vs. 101+ RPI) than Arizona, but the Wildcats and Trojans each have abysmal road profiles. The problem is that I don't know who I would replace them with. St. Mary's? South Carolina (1-5 vs. RPI Top 50)?
- The model is also more confident in Texas A&M than I am. The Aggies don't have anything unusually good or bad in their profile, as the BubbleGrid shows. Their big problem is a weak road profile, with only one RPI Top 100 win (#73 Nebraska by 2). They did beat SEC regular season champ LSU away from College Station, but it was a two hour drive away in Houston.
Over the next two days we'll take a closer look at the teams left on the bubble using profile ingredients not shown on the BubbleGrid. I will also predict which teams I think the model will miss and why. Time willing, I may also put together an actual bracket.
Also, stay tuned after Selection Sunday for review of the committee's picks and some looks at the actual tournament games to help fill out your brackets.
Notes:
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference, or the projected AQ if the bid is not final
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
- The RPI only considers games against Division I opponents, so all records listed include only games against D-I opponents.
| 1-25 | 1-50 | 1-100 | 1-200 | Road | Good road wins | Bad home losses | ||||
| Team | W-L | W | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | +/- | ||
| Ohio St. | 20-9 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4-6 | #43 Michigan #61 Miami FL | |
| Minnesota | 21-9 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 4-6 | #39 Wisconsin | |
| Utah St.* | 27-4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 10-3 | ||
| Texas A&M | 22-9 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 5-5 | #73 Nebraska | |
| Michigan | 19-12 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 10 | -1 | 1 | 3-8 | #37 Minnesota #72 N'western | |
| Boston Coll. | 22-10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 5-5 | #3 North Carolina #62 Maryland | #246 Harvard |
| Siena* | 26-7 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 9-4 | #97 Fairfield | |
| Wisconsin | 18-11 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 9 | -1 | 2 | 4-7 | #43 Michigan #56 Virginia Tech #67 Penn St. | |
| Creighton | 26-7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8-4 | #58 Northern IA #94 Evansville #99 Bradley | #167 Drake |
| San Diego St. | 20-8 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | 6-5 | #66 UNLV #66 UNLV | |
| Florida | 23-9 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2-7 | #64 Auburn #90 Vanderbilt | |
| Penn St. | 22-10 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 5-6 | #4 Michigan St. #21 Illinois | |
| Arizona | 19-13 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | 2-9 | ||
| Southern Cal | 19-12 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 7 | -3 | 4 | 2-8 | #91 Washington St. | |
| St. Mary's | 23-6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | -1 | 9 | 8-3 | ||
| South Carolina | 21-8 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5-6 | #60 Baylor #74 Kentucky | |
| New Mexico | 21-11 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 6-6 | #96 Wyoming | #161 Central Florida |
| Illinois St. | 24-9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 7-6 | #94 Evansville #95 Wright St. | #207 Indiana St. |
| UNLV | 21-10 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 6-6 | #8 Louisville #25 BYU #81 UTEP #83 Nevada | |
| Kentucky | 20-12 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 8 | -2 | -1 | 4-6 | #24 Tennessee | #128 VMI #189 Georgia |
| Miami FL | 17-12 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 4-6 | #55 Boston Coll. #74 Kentucky | |
| Maryland | 19-12 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | 2-6 | #136 Morgan St. | |
| Georgetown | 16-14 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 | -5 | -1 | 3-8 | #6 Connecticut #11 Villanova | |
| UAB | 22-10 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | -8 | 5 | 7-7 | #59 Arizona | |
| Baylor | 18-13 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | -3 | 0 | 2-7 | #80 Kansas St. #91 Washington St. | |
| Temple | 20-11 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 4 | -4 | 3 | 9-8 | #67 Penn St. #77 Duquesne | #113 La Salle |
| Niagara | 26-8 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 10-6 | #88 Buffalo #97 Fairfield | #114 Akron #214 Iona |
| Kansas St. | 20-11 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 5 | -4 | -1 | 5-5 | #33 Texas #34 Texas A&M #54 Cleveland St. | |
| Cleveland St.* | 22-10 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 8-8 | #14 Syracuse #23 Butler | |
| Tulsa | 22-9 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 7-5 | #81 UTEP | |
| Auburn | 20-10 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 5-5 | #78 Mississippi St. | #180 Mercer |