BubbleGrid for Monday, March 9
See here for a description of the BubbleGrid.
Georgetown is still hanging around the bubble line, and I know that bothers some. I go back and forth myself. But I keep thinking about last year's Oregon selection (that, yes, I missed). The bubble wasn't nearly as fluid last year, yet the Ducks made it at 18-13 overall, one RPI Top 25 win, and 12-13 against the RPI Top 200. As I mentioned in the review of last year, committee chair Tom O'Connor specifically referenced Oregon's three "really good" road wins (#37 Arizona, #50 Kansas State, #92 Cal). Georgetown may only have two road wins, but they are #5 Connecticut and #14 Villanova. The big difference between last year's Oregon and this year's Georgetown is that Oregon had a .500 conference record while the Hoyas were 4 games under .500 in the Big East.
I'm certainly not saying that I believe Georgetown should (or would) be in as of today, but another big neutral court win in Madison Square Garden will put them back in the conversation. In the mean time, I'm going to reintroduce conference record (games +/- .500) into the selection model starting tomorrow to adjust for what I believe is Georgetown's inflated selection confidence by the model.
On a side note, the "really good road wins" comment should boost the confidence of teams like UNLV (four Top 100 road wins) and Kansas State (three Top 100 road wins). On the other hand, New Mexico (no Top 100 road wins) might need to do a little more work in the Mountain West tourney, and Utah State (also no Top 100 road wins) might not want to leave the decision in the committee's hands, despite the model's current confidence in them.
Notes:
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
- The RPI only considers games against Division I opponents, so all records listed include only games against D-I opponents.
| 1-25 | 1-50 | 1-100 | 1-200 | Road | Good road wins | Bad home losses | ||||
| Team | W-L | W | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | +/- | ||
| Utah St.* | 26-4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 10-3 | ||
| Minnesota | 20-9 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 4-6 | #38 Wisconsin | |
| Oklahoma St. | 20-10 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 4-6 | #68 Nebraska | |
| Ohio St. | 20-9 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4-6 | #42 Michigan, #53 Miami FL | |
| Boston College | 21-10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 5-5 | #2 North Carolina, #67 Maryland | #246 Harvard |
| Creighton | 26-7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8-4 | #58 Northern Iowa, #93 Evansville #98 Bradley | #164 Drake |
| Wisconsin | 18-11 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 9 | -1 | 3 | 4-7 | #42 Michigan, #62 Virginia Tech #63 Penn St. | |
| Michigan | 18-12 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 10 | -1 | 0 | 3-8 | #41 Minnesota, #71 Northwestern | |
| Arizona | 19-12 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 9 | -2 | 3 | 2-9 | ||
| Florida | 22-9 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 2-7 | #64 Auburn, #85 Vanderbilt | |
| Nevada Las Vegas | 21-9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6-6 | #9 Louisville, #21 Brigham Young #78 Texas El Paso, #83 Nevada | |
| St. Mary's | 23-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8-3 | ||
| Penn St. | 21-10 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 5-6 | #6 Michigan St., #20 Illinois | |
| Siena* | 25-7 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 9-4 | #96 Fairfield | |
| Georgetown | 16-13 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 3-7 | #5 Connecticut, #14 Villanova | |
| New Mexico | 21-10 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 | -2 | 7 | 6-6 | #141 Central Florida | |
| Miami FL | 17-11 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 4-6 | #56 Boston College, #80 Kentucky | |
| San Diego St. | 19-8 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 4 | -3 | 5 | 5-5 | #55 Nevada Las Vegas | |
| South Carolina | 21-8 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5-6 | #75 Baylor, #80 Kentucky | |
| Kansas St. | 20-10 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 5-5 | #28 Texas A&M, #35 Texas #66 Cleveland St. | |
| Illinois St. | 24-9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 7-6 | #91 Wright St., #93 Evansville | #206 Indiana St. |
| Northwestern | 17-12 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 6 | -4 | -3 | 4-8 | #6 Michigan St., #31 Purdue | |
| Niagara | 26-7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10-5 | #96 Fairfield, #99 Buffalo | #118 Akron, #213 Iona |
| Southern California | 18-12 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -4 | 3 | 2-8 | #89 Washington St. | |
| Maryland | 18-12 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 7 | -3 | -1 | 2-6 | #137 Morgan St. | |
| UAB | 21-10 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | -8 | 4 | 7-7 | #52 Arizona | |
| Kentucky | 19-12 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 | -3 | -2 | 4-6 | #23 Tennessee | #125 VMI, #189 Georgia |
| Temple | 19-11 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 4 | -4 | 2 | 9-8 | #63 Penn St., #86 Duquesne | #108 La Salle |
| Tulsa | 21-9 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 7-5 | #78 Texas El Paso | |
| Notre Dame | 16-13 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 5 | -7 | -4 | 3-8 | #70 Providence | |
| Rhode Island | 22-9 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9-5 | #86 Duquesne, #92 Northeastern | #140 Massachusetts |
| Auburn | 20-10 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 5 | -4 | 2 | 5-5 | #82 Mississippi St. | #179 Mercer |