(Updated Sunday night to add note about RPI and Division I opponents.)

See yesterday's post for a description of the BubbleGrid.

The grid has been expanded a bit today, mostly on the back end. Creighton played themselves into the grid with a horrible Arch Madness loss to Illinois State. While the model still has Creighton in, and the committee claims not to consider victory margins, it could leave a bad enough taste to cut the Bluejays from the field. Ironically, Illinois State was one of our two selection misses last year after a similarly horrible loss in the MVC finals. With the model's difficulty of handling mid-majors with solid but not obvious profiles, I wouldn't be surprised to see Creighton as a miss next week. With 26 wins, they pass the smell test, but only 3-2 against the RPI Top 50 and their best win against #23 Dayton may keep them out.

Notes:

  • Hover over a value for more information
  • Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
  • Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference
  • Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
  • The RPI only considers games against Division I opponents, so all records listed include only games against D-I opponents.
1-251-501-1001-200RoadGood road winsBad home losses
TeamW-LWW+/-W+/-+/-+/-
Ohio St.19-915-38-144-6#42 Michigan, #52 Miami FL
Texas A&M22-814-18075-5#70 Nebraska
Utah St.*26-411-1301110-3
Oklahoma St.20-1013-68-244-6#70 Nebraska
Minnesota20-925-28-144-6#32 Wisconsin
Creighton26-71319498-4#67 Northern Iowa#165 Drake
Boston College21-103408075-5#3 UNC, #65 Maryland#245 Harvard
Wisconsin17-1114-59-134-7#42 Michigan, #59 Virginia Tech
#61 Penn St.
Michigan18-1226-310-103-8#41 Minnesota, #69 N'western
Arizona19-1225-39-232-9
Florida22-912-49142-7#63 Auburn
UNLV21-94408246-6#9 Louisville, #22 BYU
Penn St.21-1036-27-215-6#6 Michigan St., #21 Illinois
Georgetown16-1344-47-503-7#5 Connecticut, #13 Villanova
Miami FL17-1122-57-314-6#54 Boston College
New Mexico21-1023-15-276-6#141 Central Florida
San Diego St.19-811-44-355-5#55 UNLV
South Carolina21-801-47055-6#75 Baylor
Illinois St.24-802172127-6#206 Indiana St.
Kansas St.20-1013-25-315-5#29 Texas A&M, #36 Texas
#66 Cleveland St.
Northwestern17-1126-26-3-24-7#6 Michigan St., #31 Purdue
Siena*24-700-44-189-4
Maryland18-1223-58-2-12-6#136 Morgan St.
Southern Cal18-1202-66-432-8
St. Mary's22-50203088-3
Kentucky19-1234-27-3-24-6#17 Tennessee#124 VMI, #188 Georgia
Providence18-1222-66-604-6#74 Cincinnati
UAB21-1000-52-827-7#51 Arizona
Niagara25-712042910-5#114 Akron, #214 Iona
Tulsa21-902-45-147-5
Davidson*25-611-32-2510-2#110 Coll. of Charleston
#176 The Citadel
Notre Dame16-1313-85-7-43-8#71 Providence
Temple19-1111-44-329-8#61 Penn St.#107 La Salle
Rhode Island22-912-36029-5#139 Massachusetts
Auburn20-1012-35-425-5#180 Mercer
Virginia Tech17-1222-56-405-5#15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson
#52 Miami FL