BubbleGrid for Sunday, March 8
See yesterday's post for a description of the BubbleGrid.
The grid has been expanded a bit today, mostly on the back end. Creighton played themselves into the grid with a horrible Arch Madness loss to Illinois State. While the model still has Creighton in, and the committee claims not to consider victory margins, it could leave a bad enough taste to cut the Bluejays from the field. Ironically, Illinois State was one of our two selection misses last year after a similarly horrible loss in the MVC finals. With the model's difficulty of handling mid-majors with solid but not obvious profiles, I wouldn't be surprised to see Creighton as a miss next week. With 26 wins, they pass the smell test, but only 3-2 against the RPI Top 50 and their best win against #23 Dayton may keep them out.
Notes:
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
- The RPI only considers games against Division I opponents, so all records listed include only games against D-I opponents.
| 1-25 | 1-50 | 1-100 | 1-200 | Road | Good road wins | Bad home losses | ||||
| Team | W-L | W | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | +/- | ||
| Ohio St. | 19-9 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 4-6 | #42 Michigan, #52 Miami FL | |
| Texas A&M | 22-8 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 5-5 | #70 Nebraska | |
| Utah St.* | 26-4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 10-3 | ||
| Oklahoma St. | 20-10 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 4-6 | #70 Nebraska | |
| Minnesota | 20-9 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 4-6 | #32 Wisconsin | |
| Creighton | 26-7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8-4 | #67 Northern Iowa | #165 Drake |
| Boston College | 21-10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 5-5 | #3 UNC, #65 Maryland | #245 Harvard |
| Wisconsin | 17-11 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 9 | -1 | 3 | 4-7 | #42 Michigan, #59 Virginia Tech #61 Penn St. | |
| Michigan | 18-12 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 10 | -1 | 0 | 3-8 | #41 Minnesota, #69 N'western | |
| Arizona | 19-12 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 9 | -2 | 3 | 2-9 | ||
| Florida | 22-9 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2-7 | #63 Auburn | |
| UNLV | 21-9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6-6 | #9 Louisville, #22 BYU | |
| Penn St. | 21-10 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 7 | -2 | 1 | 5-6 | #6 Michigan St., #21 Illinois | |
| Georgetown | 16-13 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 | -5 | 0 | 3-7 | #5 Connecticut, #13 Villanova | |
| Miami FL | 17-11 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 7 | -3 | 1 | 4-6 | #54 Boston College | |
| New Mexico | 21-10 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 | -2 | 7 | 6-6 | #141 Central Florida | |
| San Diego St. | 19-8 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 4 | -3 | 5 | 5-5 | #55 UNLV | |
| South Carolina | 21-8 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5-6 | #75 Baylor | |
| Illinois St. | 24-8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 7-6 | #206 Indiana St. | |
| Kansas St. | 20-10 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 5-5 | #29 Texas A&M, #36 Texas #66 Cleveland St. | |
| Northwestern | 17-11 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 6 | -3 | -2 | 4-7 | #6 Michigan St., #31 Purdue | |
| Siena* | 24-7 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 9-4 | ||
| Maryland | 18-12 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 | -2 | -1 | 2-6 | #136 Morgan St. | |
| Southern Cal | 18-12 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -4 | 3 | 2-8 | ||
| St. Mary's | 22-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8-3 | ||
| Kentucky | 19-12 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 7 | -3 | -2 | 4-6 | #17 Tennessee | #124 VMI, #188 Georgia |
| Providence | 18-12 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 6 | -6 | 0 | 4-6 | #74 Cincinnati | |
| UAB | 21-10 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | -8 | 2 | 7-7 | #51 Arizona | |
| Niagara | 25-7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 10-5 | #114 Akron, #214 Iona | |
| Tulsa | 21-9 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 7-5 | ||
| Davidson* | 25-6 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 10-2 | #110 Coll. of Charleston #176 The Citadel | |
| Notre Dame | 16-13 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 5 | -7 | -4 | 3-8 | #71 Providence | |
| Temple | 19-11 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 4 | -3 | 2 | 9-8 | #61 Penn St. | #107 La Salle |
| Rhode Island | 22-9 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9-5 | #139 Massachusetts | |
| Auburn | 20-10 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 5 | -4 | 2 | 5-5 | #180 Mercer | |
| Virginia Tech | 17-12 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 5-5 | #15 Wake Forest, #19 Clemson #52 Miami FL | |