Who wants it?
Each year around this time, it seems like there are too many at-large spots and too few quality teams to fill them. This year is no exception. I present to you: BubbleGrid.
| 1-25 | 1-50 | 1-100 | 1-200 | Road | Good road wins | Bad home losses | ||||
| Team | W-L | W | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | +/- | ||
| Florida St. | 20-8 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 5-5 | #32 Georgia Tech #82 North Carolina #100 Boston College | #109 North Carolina St. |
| Nevada Las Vegas | 21-7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 9-3 | #7 New Mexico #88 Arizona | #135 Utah |
| Marquette | 18-9 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 5-5 | #44 Connecticut #58 Cincinnati #64 Seton Hall #79 St. John's | #109 North Carolina St. |
| California | 20-9 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 5 | -1 | 10 | 5-6 | #55 Arizona St. | #145 UCLA |
| Virginia Tech | 21-7 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 5-5 | ||
| Florida | 20-9 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 5-4 | #53 Mississippi | #213 South Alabama |
| UAB | 23-5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 9-3 | #59 Marshall | |
| Texas El Paso | 22-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7-2 | #35 UAB #65 Memphis #69 New Mexico St. #74 Tulsa | |
| Connecticut | 17-12 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 8 | -2 | 3 | 2-6 | #9 Villanova | |
| Dayton | 19-9 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 5 | -3 | 6 | 4-6 | ||
| Old Dominion | 23-8 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8-6 | #14 Georgetown #56 William & Mary | |
| Rhode Island | 20-7 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 8-5 | #41 Dayton #92 Akron #100 Boston College | |
| Notre Dame | 19-10 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | #14 Georgetown #63 South Florida | #185 Loyola Marymount |
| St. Mary's | 23-5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 9-2 | #33 Utah St. | |
| Washington | 18-9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 2-6 | #108 Southern California #156 Oregon | |
| San Diego St. | 18-8 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 3 | -3 | 5 | 7-7 | ||
| Wichita St. | 22-8 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 5-7 | #83 Indiana St. #85 Missouri St. | |
| Mississippi St. | 21-8 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5-5 | #53 Mississippi #96 South Carolina | #157 Rider |
| Siena | 24-6 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 9-5 | #81 Iona #94 Fairfield | |
| Mississippi | 19-9 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | -4 | 2 | 5-4 | #84 Georgia | #139 Arkansas |
| Cornell | 22-4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | -2 | 9 | 10-3 | #79 St. John's | |
| Cincinnati | 16-12 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 6 | -6 | 0 | 2-8 | #44 Connecticut | |
| Illinois | 17-11 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 6-3 | #18 Wisconsin #27 Clemson | |
Shaded teams would be in as of today, as either an at-large berth or their conference's automatic qualifier. Green shaded values are good and red shaded values are bad, each based on historical selection trends.
Some observations:
- St. Mary's
and UTEP 
have roughly the same profile, so it will be interesting to see what other factors the committee considers. UTEP has more good road wins than St. Mary's, but St. Mary's worst loss is slightly better (#108 Southern Cal compared to #146 Houston) and the Gaels have a slightly better top-of-the-line profile (2-3 compared to 1-1 against RPI top 50). Neither has a signature win, but neither do a lot of bubble teams.
-
Off the bubble, it's a shame N.C. State couldn't win a few more RPI Top 100 games, or they'd be a legitimate bubble team. They have 4 wins over likely tournament teams, including two on the road and home over possible #1 seed Duke.