Comparing St. Mary's and Gonzaga

Each year I like to take a look at some of the teams that the selection and seeding models may be mishandling. I'll do a little more of that over the next week, but I'll start with a quickie side-by-side comparison of St. Mary's and Gonzaga.

(Background here)

The CTD selection model currently has St. Mary's as one of the last few that would be in if they we'rent already the automatic qualifier. Gonzaga, on the other hand, is the seventh team out.

It's not as though St. Mary's, like many of the teams at the tail end of the field, has a profile that historically matches at-large selections. The CTD model compares each team against profiles from the past and assigns each a score between 0 (not an at-large profile) and 100 (perfect at-large match). St Mary's score (through March 2 games) was 2.4 - not exactly a ringing endorsement.

St. Mary's best win is better than Gonzaga's, but after that Gonzaga has the better wins. St. Mary's inexplicable loss to San Diego will probably be its biggest problem with the committee.

Wins

St. Mary's (21 wins)					Gonzaga (21 wins)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
76	71	St. John's (15)	H	15	23	H	Xavier (23)	64	54
73	71	Gonzaga (71)	A	43	37	A	St. Mary's (51)	89	85
82	74	Long Beach St. (96)	N	61	43	H	Oklahoma St. (54)	73	52
83	69	Portland (102)	H	71	46	N	Marquette (56)	66	63
94	72	Mississippi St. (110)	N	79	52	N	Baylor (78)	68	64
86	68	San Francisco (127)	A	87	61	A	Portland (102)	67	64
71	57	San Francisco (127)	H	93	67	H	Portland (102)	74	61
73	53	New Mexico St. (139)	A	98	73	H	IUPUI (117)	86	56
88	68	Texas Tech (160)	N	105	79	H	San Francisco (127)	70	53
65	59	Santa Clara (168)	A	112	88	H	Santa Clara (168)	85	76
84	59	Santa Clara (168)	H	117	102	H	Lafayette (241)	83	55
77	47	Denver (233)	H	126	113	A	Pepperdine (242)	63	44
85	60	Pepperdine (242)	A	135	123	H	Pepperdine (242)	92	75
79	71	Pepperdine (242)	H	143	133	A	Wake Forest (256)	73	63
87	52	Mississippi Valley St. (243)	H	150	142	H	Eastern Washington (275)	86	57
87	63	Hartford (277)	H	158	151	A	Loyola Marymount (288)	67	57
75	56	UC Riverside (284)	H	165	159	H	Loyola Marymount (288)	79	59
98	75	Loyola Marymount (288)	A	172	168	H	Cal St. Bakersfield (306)	96	49
79	70	Loyola Marymount (288)	H	178	175	A	San Diego (315)	68	31
67	56	San Diego (315)	H	185	182	H	San Diego (315)	86	53
121	52	Chicago St. (329)	H	192	190	H	Southern (339)	117	72

Losses

St. Mary's (7 losses)					Gonzaga (9 losses)
Score		Opponent		Avg	Avg	Opponent		Score
66	74	San Diego (315)	A	315	168	A	Santa Clara (168)	71	85
70	85	Portland (102)	A	209	148	A	San Francisco (127)	91	96
85	89	Gonzaga (71)	H	163	122	A	Washington St. (72)	59	81
70	89	Vanderbilt (25)	A	128	105	H	St. Mary's (51)	71	73
65	75	Utah St. (19)	H	106	91	N	Illinois (39)	61	73
55	69	San Diego St. (5)	A	90	82	H	Memphis (35)	58	62
73	74	Brigham Young (3)	N	77	73	N	Kansas St. (22)	64	81
						A	Notre Dame (10)	79	83
						H	San Diego St. (5)	76	79