If you're using Ken Pomeroy's sublime ratings to fill out your bracket, there are few things you need to know.
First, a caveat. Even a full season of games is not always enough to know whether a team's numerical assessment reflects its true talent, so when we start looking at a subset of those games, misleading numbers can be more likely.
That said, some teams may have built up their high ranking against the nether regions of Division 1, while others have played their best games against the top of the heap. Of course, winning in the NCAA Tournament means you have to beat the best.
We can use Net Efficiency Margin, or NEM, to try to identify the teams that have built up their power rating against weaker teams and those that may be underrated in the tournament because they played down to lesser competition.
These teams may be overrated by Pomeroy's ratings (minimum 5 games against 201+ teams):
|Seed||Team||vs. 201+||vs. 1-200||Diff|
Two of those teams (Wisconsin and Montana) meet up in the round of 64, and chic Final Four sleeper Wichita State also shows up in the list. Only five of the Shockers' 31 games came against teams outside the KenPom top 200, so this could just be a statistical oddity.
These teams may be underrated by Pomeroy's ratings (minimum 5 games against top 100 teams):
|Seed||Team||vs. 1-100||vs. 101+||Diff|
|6||San Diego St.||16.4||8.8||7.6|
We have a pair of round of 64 matchups (Ohio vs. Michigan and Kansas State vs. Southern Miss) among these teams. Michigan played 22 of their 32 games against KenPom top 100 competition, giving more credibilty to their inclusion on the list. Ohio only played 6 games against the top 100.