BubbleGrid is back
You know the deal. Selection Sunday is near. See this to learn what the BubbleGrid all about.
The big thing that stands out right now is that the CTD selection model thinks a little more highly of teams right around the cut line than it has in recent years.
For example, compare today's grid with last season's final version of the grid. The last four teams predicted in 2012 to be in the field (three of which did not make the field) all had scores of nearly zero, meaning their profiles did not match that of teams that historically were (or would have been) at-large selections.
This season, the last at-large team currently in the field as of today (Tennessee) has a score of 70.2 (out of 100), so the teams on the good side of the bubble right now have historically good profiles. Of course, there are still a few more regular season games and conference tournaments left to play, so thinks can and often do change.
I'm not as sold on Kentucky's position as the model is. They haven't looked great since losing Nerlens Noel for the season. After posting a 21.5 Net Efficiency Margin with Noel, their Noel-less NEM has been been 7.0 - roughly 100th best in the country - in an admittedly small five-game sample. They still have a chance for a committee-convincing signature win this weekend against Florida, but time's running out for any shot at a repeat.
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference. Bold shaded teams have clinched the AQ berth
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
| 1-25 | 1-50 | 1-100 | 1-200 | Road | Good road wins | Bad home losses | |||||
| Team | Score | W-L | W | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | +/- | ||
| St. Mary's | > 99.9 | 25-5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 9-2 | #61 Brigham Young #92 Santa Clara #98 Utah St. | |
| Virginia | > 99.9 | 20-9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3-7 | #41 Wisconsin #70 Maryland | #127 Delaware |
| Cincinnati | > 99.9 | 20-10 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 8 | -2 | 4 | 5-5 | #39 Pittsburgh | |
| Belmont * | > 99.9 | 22-6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 8-5 | #64 Eastern Kentucky #72 Stanford | |
| Temple | > 99.9 | 21-8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7-4 | #54 Massachusetts #55 Villanova #82 Charlotte | #105 St. Bonaventure #108 Canisius #216 Duquesne |
| Boise St. | > 99.9 | 18-8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 5-7 | #35 Creighton #66 Wyoming | |
| La Salle | 97.8 | 20-7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 8 | 8-5 | #31 VCU | #194 Central Connecticut |
| Louisiana Tech * | 86.7 | 25-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 10-3 | #98 Utah St. | |
| Villanova | 86 | 17-12 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 | -4 | 2 | 6-7 | #40 Connecticut | #267 Columbia |
| Kentucky | 76.4 | 20-9 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 4-6 | #58 Mississippi #83 Texas A&M | |
| Tennessee | 70.2 | 17-11 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 8 | -1 | 1 | 3-7 | #83 Texas A&M | #129 Georgia |
| Middle Tennessee * | 39.9 | 27-4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | -2 | 12 | 11-4 | ||
| Iowa St. | 8 | 19-10 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 3-8 | #69 Baylor | |
| Akron * | 6.4 | 22-5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7-4 | #73 Ohio | |
| Massachusetts | < 0.1 | 18-9 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7-4 | #44 La Salle #93 Xavier | #149 George Washington |
| Southern Mississippi | < 0.1 | 20-7 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 3 | -3 | 5 | 9-6 | #100 East Carolina | |
| Mississippi | < 0.1 | 21-8 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 5-6 | #56 Tennessee | |
| Maryland | < 0.1 | 20-9 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 3 | -4 | 5 | 3-6 | ||
| Alabama | < 0.1 | 18-10 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4-7 | #104 Dayton #132 Mercer #175 Tulane | |
| Bucknell * | < 0.1 | 24-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12-4 | #96 Loyola MD | #103 Lehigh |
| Stephen F. Austin * | < 0.1 | 20-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11-3 | #25 Oklahoma | |
| Arkansas | < 0.1 | 18-11 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 | -3 | -2 | 1-8 | ||
| Stanford | < 0.1 | 17-13 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 5 | -8 | 0 | 4-6 | #95 Arizona St. | |
| Denver | < 0.1 | 19-8 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 8-6 | #75 Northern Iowa #98 Utah St. | |
| St. John's | < 0.1 | 16-12 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 4 | -4 | 1 | 4-6 | #49 Cincinnati | #110 Rutgers #203 NC Asheville |
| Brigham Young | < 0.1 | 20-10 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 6-5 | #89 Weber St. #92 Santa Clara | #154 San Francisco |
| Baylor | < 0.1 | 16-13 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 4 | -6 | -4 | 4-7 | #51 Kentucky | #143 Northwestern #150 College of Charleston |
| Valparaiso * | < 0.1 | 23-7 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 10-5 | #57 Detroit | #220 Loyola Chicago |