The final update is live. Here are some final thoughts:

  • It looks like Middle Tennessee is going to squeak by Virginia in the final selection model. The final scores were 25.6 (out of 100) for MTSU and 22.7 for Virginia. I wouldn't be surprised with either. Virginia's profile is so wacky, there is really no good comparison for them. They have some good wins, but some really, really bad losses.
  • Kentucky was the other selection wildcard, with their post-Noel performance falling off quite a bit. Despite the selection model's confidence down to the endm, I don't see them getting in.
  • The CTD seeding model bumped Indiana down to a 2, but I'm not sure I see that happening. I'm not sure whether it would be Duke or Gonzaga that would be bumped down to the 2 line, but I feel safe with any four out of Louisville (overall #1), Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, or Indiana. Despite the protests of some, I don't see Miami rising to the top line.
  • The seeding model might also have New Mexico (2) and St. Louis (3) a bit high, but it's been fooled in the past by some non-power conference resumes. I'd say the next line down for each is probably the right guess.

For posterity, I'll go with the 1 seeds:

Louisville - Indianapolis

Kansas - Dallas

Indiana - Washington, D.C.

Duke - Los Angeles

That would likely then put Gonzaga in L.A. as the 2 seed, so it may not matter all that much whether Duke or Gonzaga gets the formality of the 1 seed.

Let's roll the dice and start playing some games.