Selection Sunday BubbleGrid
Disclaimer: I despise RPI as much as the next person, but for better or worse it's what the committee uses to organize opponents for comparison. My goal is to predict what the committee will do, so I reference it.
The #1 line
Other than that pesky loss column, Wichita State and Villanova have very similar profiles. Yet one is considered a #1 seed lock and the other may get knocked off the top line by the Big 10 champ (if it's Michigan) or the ACC champ (unlikely).
If Wichita State does end up on the top line, that would seem to indicate that the committee (as they usually say they do) pays little attention to power ratings (i.e., based on margin-of-victory) for top level seeding. I happen to think that any measure of "best teams" for selection and seeding should include power ratings, but the committee's guidelines are vague.
(By the way, it's OK to admire and respect the accomplishment of a 33-0 season and still not think that team is one of the four best teams in the land. Despite the strawman arguments otherwise.)
There seems to be consensus there isn't a lot of separation among the top 5-10 teams (partially because of the impact of injuries), so the distinction of a #1 seed may not mean much more than a bullet point in next year's media guide.
The cut line
As expected, Louisiana Tech fell out of the field after losing the CUSA championship game. The first two teams out (Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech) each have CTD model scores above 50%, meaning their profiles are historically at-large worthy. It just happens that enough other teams have profiles that are slightly more worthy.
Committee chairman Ron Wellman said on CBS this afternoon that injuries affect selection less than they affect seeding. That tells me that BYU is probably safe despite losing Kyle Collinsworth. Or that they weren't in the field in the first place.
SMU is closer to the cut line than many realize.
There seems to be a lot of Internet chatter arguing North Carolina State should sneak in. They may be closer to the line than the CTD model currently shows, but that 6-11 record against the top 100 likely won't offset having Syracuse as their only signature win.
I don't see Green Bay making it in the field either. They beat Virginia and played Wisconsin close (both at home), but have two home losses outside the top 100 (both to Milwaukee).
- Hover over a value for more information
- Shaded teams are predicted to be in the field
- Teams with a * are the projected automatic qualifier (AQ) for their conference. Bold shaded teams have clinched the AQ berth
- Teams are listed in order of their selection confidence by the CTD model. In other words, the last shaded non-AQ team is the last team in, and the first non-shaded team is the first team out.
|1-25||1-50||1-100||1-200||Road||Good road wins||Bad home losses|
|Memphis||> 99.9||22-9||3||4||-3||6||-2||5||5-5||#19 Louisville|
|BYU||> 99.9||22-11||1||3||-3||8||1||8||5-8||#41 Stanford|
#60 Saint Mary's
#71 San Francisco
|Saint Joseph's||> 99.9||23-9||2||5||0||9||1||8||7-4||#43 Dayton|
#94 La Salle
#95 St. Bonaventure
|Oklahoma St.||> 99.9||21-12||1||5||-6||8||-3||3||3-7||#88 West Virginia|
|Colorado||> 99.9||23-11||1||5||-3||8||-2||7||5-7||#41 Stanford|
|Pittsburgh||> 99.9||25-9||0||2||-5||7||-2||9||7-2||#55 North Carolina St.|
|Dayton||> 99.9||23-10||2||4||-2||10||3||8||7-4||#26 Saint Louis|
#95 St. Bonaventure
|Arizona St.||> 99.9||21-11||1||4||-3||8||0||4||4-7||#63 California||#104 Washington|
|Stanford||> 99.9||21-12||2||5||-4||7||-3||3||6-5||#23 Connecticut|
|Providence *||> 99.9||23-11||2||2||-3||8||-2||7||6-6||#77 St. John's|
#77 St. John's
|#132 Seton Hall|
|Tennessee||> 99.9||20-12||1||2||-4||7||-2||4||4-7||#78 LSU||#150 Texas A&M|
|Xavier||> 99.9||21-12||2||4||-2||9||0||6||4-6||#77 St. John's||#132 Seton Hall|
|Iowa||99.3||20-12||2||4||-5||7||-3||1||4-6||#24 Ohio St.|
|Nebraska||99.1||19-12||3||4||-3||6||-3||3||3-8||#21 Michigan St.|
|Southern Miss||74.1||25-6||0||1||0||5||1||8||10-5||#34 North Dakota St.|
|Louisiana Tech||67.5||26-7||1||2||0||5||-1||7||9-5||#25 Oklahoma|
|Missouri||9.3||22-11||1||2||-2||7||-2||6||3-7||#55 North Carolina St.|
|Florida St.||2.6||19-13||2||3||-6||6||-6||-2||6-6||#39 Pittsburgh|
|#110 Miami FL|
|Georgetown||1.3||17-14||3||5||-1||7||-3||2||2-8||#132 Seton Hall|
|Minnesota||1.1||19-13||2||2||-6||5||-6||1||3-7||#74 Richmond||#125 Northwestern|
|Harvard *||< 0.1||25-4||0||0||-2||2||0||8||11-3||#84 Boston University||#145 Yale|
|Green Bay||< 0.1||21-6||1||1||-1||4||1||5||9-2||#90 Cleveland St.||#130 Milwaukee|
|North Dakota St. *||< 0.1||22-6||0||0||-2||2||-1||7||10-5||#67 Western Michigan|
|California||< 0.1||19-13||1||4||-6||5||-6||1||5-6||#28 Oregon|
|North Carolina St.||< 0.1||21-13||1||3||-6||6||-5||1||6-6||#39 Pittsburgh|
|#110 Miami FL|
|Illinois||< 0.1||19-14||1||4||-5||5||-5||-1||6-7||#21 Michigan St.|
|Stephen F. Austin *||< 0.1||29-2||0||0||-1||0||-1||10||14-2|
|St. John's||< 0.1||20-12||1||2||-5||6||-4||2||4-5||#40 Providence|
|Saint Mary's||< 0.1||21-11||0||1||-4||5||-1||8||6-5||#82 Boise St.||#206 Santa Clara|
|Utah||< 0.1||19-11||1||4||-4||5||-4||1||2-8||#63 California|
|Toledo||< 0.1||26-6||0||0||-1||7||2||9||9-5||#91 Akron|
|Manhattan *||< 0.1||25-7||0||0||-1||6||4||8||12-4||#94 La Salle|
|Georgia||< 0.1||19-13||0||2||-5||7||-1||-1||4-7||#49 Missouri|
#157 Georgia Tech